RUMBLIN' FOR RICK? – AT 9:04 A.M. ET:  The man of the hour...or the next five minutes...in the GOP appears to be Governor Rick Perry of Texas.  Eyes beyond Texas are upon him, and an upcoming speech in the anti-Texas, New York City, will be closely watched.

Inevitably, those of us who do this kind of abnormal work are reading up on Rick Perry, trying to assess the pros and cons.  There are both, in abundance.

He has broken all longevity records in Texas gubernatorial history, as the state's longest serving governor ever, having been lieutenant governor and rising to the governorship when George W. Bush became president.  He is head of the Republican Governors Association.  Under his leadership, Texas has achieved the best job-growth record of any state, an absolutely priceless argument in next year's election.  He's a spectacular campaigner, winning come-from-behind elections.

But there are negatives, and they can sink him:  He is seen as a rigid ideologue, winning in a heavily Republican state.  He would need independents in a general election.  He has never campaigned outside Texas.  He is controversial within his own party, having been challenged for the gubernatorial nomination last time out by Republican Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison, whom he defeated.  (Former President George H.W. Bush supported Hutchison.) 

His economic policies, while spectacularly successful, are often viewed as cold.  Someone remarked that he makes George W. Bush's "compassionate conservatism" actually look compassionate.  He wears his religion on his sleeve, often bumping up those for whom separation of church and state is an important issue.  He has made some widely publicized gaffes – such as seeming to support secession of Texas from the Union.  As several observers noted, we've been there before, in 186l, and it didn't work out well. 

Perhaps Perry's most controversial act was to require young girls, by executive order, to be vaccinated with a new vaccine that fights cervical cancer.  The order was overturned by the legislature.  It raised conservative as well as liberal eyebrows because it was such a blatant intervention in private lives.

So, there are factors on both sides – a superb economic record as governor as opposed to an image as an ideologue.  Barack Obama, the Slick Willy of the new century, can make himself look like a moderate standing next to Perry in a debate, and that is a danger.

We'll be watching.

June 10, 2011